Oracle and Sun had competing technologies in the identity provisioning space as well. Migration between these two tool suites is non-trivial, but if one tool will loose the battle, it will become important to think more about standards such as SPML as an isolation layer vs attempting to deal with even more custom adapters.
The strategy around how identity management evolves in the enterprise is actually a more important conversation than whether Oracle decides to keep products around. I suspect that many within the enterprise have done a horrific job of making their identity management implementations other than tightly coupled. Maybe, we need some discussions in the blogosphere on IdM and looser coupling to enterprise applications...
